Political Mystery

 

A Political Mystery

Today we attempt to solve a political mystery: How was Donald Trump elected to the presidency for a second term?

His election to his first term is no mystery. The Democrats attempted to foist the consummate insider, Hillary Clinton, on the electorate. But the electorate was fed up with business as usual. They wanted a new direction. Trump represented change, novelty. When the electorate is fed up, they crave that kind of stimulation. All that was known about Trump was that he was a rich businessman (and therefore qualified to be a Republican candidate) and a somewhat obnoxious television personality. He’ll shake things up. He promises to make America great again. Give the guy a chance. It doesn’t take much to sway the electorate when it is disgruntled.

And so it was that as election evening ground onward inexorably, the liberal media on all channels (Fox news excepted) began to perspire profusely but could not bring itself to utter the unspeakable. That is, until Jonathan Karl of ABC told his colleagues that they had better get used to the idea that Donald Trump was going to be the next president.

No, Trump’s first-term election is no mystery. But his second-term election is, in spades.

After four years of bitterness, divisiveness, obnoxiousness, a shaky economy, and a complete mishandling of the Covid crisis, Trump was handily defeated by another consummate Democratic insider, Joe Biden. Trump’s reaction was to deny losing and try to pressure the Georgia state election officials to throw enough votes his way to carry the state. When that didn’t work, he tried to prevent the election from being certified by inciting his supporters on national television to march on Congress. They did much more than march. Surprise, surprise! Trump disavowed all responsibility for the trashing of the Capitol. All feasible options exhausted, he finally opted to vacate the White House on inauguration day.

Now that he was out of power and vulnerable, the bitterness that Trump left behind came back to haunt him. In the ensuing months, several women came forward to accuse him of inappropriate sexual behavior. In some cases, his responses could be considered defamatory. One of the women sued him for defamation and won. New York officials accused him of defrauding the state of hundreds of millions of dollars, took him to court, and won. Federal officials accused him of mishandling classified documents and prepared to take him to court. Georgia officials accused him of attempted election interference and did the same. He was legally besieged. The cases ground on over the next four years.

You might think that someone in his position wouldn’t stand a chance of being reelected. But Trump didn’t see it that way. Apparently, he decided that the only way to escape the doom that was headed his way was to regain the presidency, and that would make all the bad stuff go away. So, he commandeered the Republican party (not hard to do, it seems), got himself nominated, and launched his reelection campaign.

An objective observer could be forgiven for thinking he had little chance of winning. But that proved not to be the case. In the run-up to the presidential debates, most polls had the election too close to call. We might delve into the reasons for that on another occasion. The important point is that with the race so close, it was independent voters who would decide the outcome.

Once again, on election night, as the evening wore on, things trended Trump’s way, and in the end, he won all of the swing states and the presidency, handily. How did he do it from such an unpromising starting position?

There have been some quite sophisticated conspiracy theories emanating from the liberal end of the political spectrum. But paranoia is no more attractive in liberals than in conservatives. So, we won’t go there. Besides, there is a much simpler explanation. Occam’s razor applies.

That brings us to the event that, in our opinion, handed the election to Trump. That event was the first televised debate. To remind you, the race was very close heading into the debates, and the independent voters would decide the outcome. The first debate starkly exposed Biden as cognitively challenged. His rambling incoherence was on display for all to see. Even Trump, silently thanking the gods, remarked that he didn’t know what Joe was trying to say, and Joe probably didn’t either.

Two things happened here, and they were decisive for independent voters. First, the Democrats were offering a cognitively impaired candidate for president. Second, they, along with most of the media, had tried to cover it up. But there was no hiding it in the debate. It was mercilessly exposed. You can take your pick on which of those factors had the greater impact on independents. What was clear was that Democrats were capable of massive fraud and lying on a scale to match anything the Republicans could offer.

The Democrats compounded their problem by continuing to push the cover-up. Their candidate was tired, their candidate was recovering from an illness, etc. etc. Eventually they saw the light and jettisoned Biden for Harris, but it was too late. The electorate had been insulted and it didn’t sit well with independents. Even Trump’s inane campaign, with its typical load of lies and bluster, couldn’t wash the bad taste out of the mouths of voters.

In other words, it wasn’t anything Trump did that secured his second term. It was the stupidity and lust for power of the Democrats that delivered the victory.

So that’s the theory. What’s a poor voter to do? Bearing in mind that third parties never win and that either of the major parties will lie, cheat, steal, or commit any other sin to gain power (the drug of choice these days, along with fame), the best advice that can be offered is to use the brain that God and evolution spent millions of years to give you and try to discern which candidate is the lesser of the two evils. Sorry we can’t be more optimistic.